Decaying 'colour revolutions'

Kyrgyzstan will vote in snap parliamentary elections on Sunday –- and the main winner is likely to be President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, who has been at loggerheads with parliament since he came to power in March 2005.

Mass protests ousted his predecessor, Askar Akayev, in what was dubbed the 'Tulip Revolution' that promised to turn Kyrgyzstan into a beacon of democracy in Central Asia. Such hopes proved premature in both Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, which followed the Ukrainian route in producing its own version of popular upheavals -- the 'Rose Revolution'. 

All three post-revolutionary states have experienced protracted periods of instability. Kyrgyzstan and Georgia, in particular, have seen the assassination and exile of political opponents, and there was violence on the streets of Tbilisi in November, which undermined the democratic credentials of President Mikheil Saakashvili.

Political instability, disillusionment with government policies and low standards of living have triggered new mass protests, threatening to undo the 'revolutionary' regimes. These, in turn, reacted in a familiar manner -- clamping down on the opposition and calling snap elections, which they know they can win.

Colour revolutions have no chance of spreading either to the rest of Central Asia or Russia, where authorities remain firmly in control of the political landscape. In the three CIS states that have experienced mass upheavals and regime change, success has been mixed at best, and the authoritarian tendencies of Saakashvili and Bakiyev may yet come to the fore in the new year.