ANC: changes at the top

At its party congress from Sunday, South Africa's African National Congress (ANC) -- the governing party since 1994 -- will choose its new leadership.

The party's parliamentary dominance and popular support ensures that the new ANC leader will have a key role in leading -- or shaping -- the future direction of the country. The leadership race has boiled down into two main factions, in support of candidates that seem to represent conflicting agendas.

Jacob Zuma is the clear frontrunner going into the congress.  He was sacked as deputy president in 2005, after his financial advisor was convicted on corruption charges.  Nevertheless, a corruption case against him was withdrawn, and he was acquitted on rape charges. 

Zuma has benefited from the perception that he has a populist agenda, focused on delivering social benefits to a population that is growing impatient with the speed of gains under the current administration.  As such, he has drawn support from the Congress of South African Trade Unions, the largest of the country's three main trade union federations, and the Left-leaning members of the ANC ruling alliance.

President Thabo Mbeki decided to stand for another term as ANC leader, although he will not be able to serve as state president again when his current term ends in 2009.  Mbeki's candidacy represents an attempt to block Zuma, and safeguard the pro-growth policies that he has overseen during his tenure.  However, his support has dwindled because of his record of rewarding loyalty above competence in his government, and his image as a highly centralised decision maker.  Moreover, there are growing perceptions that Mbeki may have abused his office to push for the prosecution of Zuma, fuelled in no small part by Zuma's supporters.

The process for selecting a new leader will involve some 4,000 voting delegates from the ANC's branches, whose choices will not be made public.  This has fuelled speculation that a consensus candidate could emerge to smooth the increasingly tense succession process.  However, while candidates -- such as prominent businessman and former ANC Secretary-General Cyril Ramaphosa -- have been mooted, none appears to be in a position to generate the needed momentum to emerge on top, leaving Zuma looking strong.

Nevertheless, Zuma's ability to shift the course of South Africa's policy significantly remains in doubt.  Despite his populist image -- and occasional pronouncements -- Zuma has yet to articulate clear policy positions.  He has been at pains to present himself as a business-friendly leader.  Moreover, his only established policy track record has been as Mbeki's deputy, during which he promoted the administration's pro-growth policies.

And South Africa's continued economic growth -- running at about 5% per year -- is dependent on capital inflows to finance the widening current account deficit.  As such, a prospective Zuma administration will have to retain investor confidence to continue to deliver growth, especially while the import intensive programme of infrastructure development continues -- not least in the run-up to the 2010 soccer World Cup.

Zuma's character may not appeal beyond the ANC cadres which elect him, but concerns about a prospective Zuma presidency should be tempered by the policy-constraints he will face.