Obama: time to get tough?

This week a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination, Senator Barack Obama, must decide whether he really wants to be president. 

To be sure, over the past several weeks Obama has transmuted a successful speech and some minor gaffes by his principal opponent, Senator Hillary Clinton, into a statistical tie in polls of likely voters in the January 3, 2008 Iowa Democratic party caucuses.  Yet Clinton’s organisational and fundraising advantages -- not to mention her massive polling leads nationally and in every other state -- mean that Obama’s challenge is still feeble. 

Even if he triumphs in Iowa -- still very uncertain -- his ability to ride the resultant wave of momentum to the nomination would be hampered by several key handicaps:

• The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for January 8, only five days after Iowa, leaving him precious little time to campaign.  Clinton has long maintained a more than double-digit lead over Obama in state polls.
• The South Carolina primary, which will serve as a crucial gauge of the candidates’ support among black voters, is due to take place just 11 days later, on January 19.

Indeed, Obama finds himself in a position similar to John McCain, during the latter’s insurgent campaign against George Bush in 2000 -- he needs to sweep all of the early races to have a chance of victory against the ‘establishment’ candidate.  McCain performed acceptably in Iowa and cruised to a massive victory in New Hampshire, but was snuffed out by Bush in South Carolina.  On present form, Obama is headed for a similar fate.

His only hope may be to take the advice of Karl Rove.  Rove, who served as Bush’s long-time deputy White House chief of staff and political eminence grise, last week ridiculed Obama in the Financial Times as “a vitamin-deficient Adlai Stevenson” -- a reference to the earnest, worthy Democrat who was twice crushed by Dwight Eisenhower in presidential elections.  But he also offered Obama some sound advice: be clear about your differences with Clinton, “create controversies” that suit your political strengths, and explain what you stand for.