Kosovo: two-time loser?

It is the end of the road on Monday for four months of seeking a negotiated solution for Kosovo. 

EU, Russian and US envoys report to the UN Security Council on their failure to reconcile the diametrically opposed positions of Kosovo's Albanian majority and Belgrade.  The Council then discusses Kosovo on December 19.  Indications are that Russia will urge further negotiations, the Albanians will refuse and the West will seek an extra-UN solution, because Russia will use its veto.

Pristina will declare independence unilaterally, not immediately, but after:

• Serbian presidential elections some time in January are out of the way;
• Washington gives its go-ahead; and
• Major EU capitals signal support -- EU and NATO backing will be vital.

Provocations from hotheads could force the pace, but recent chest beating from the likes of Aleksandar Simic and Bishop Artemije may be dismissed as just brave talk.  With the dinar falling, Serbia is gambling on EU division and more-than-rhetorical support from Russia, and may be disappointed on both counts.