Kim's cat

"An indeterminacy originally restricted to the atomic domain becomes transformed into macroscopic indeterminacy, which can then be resolved by direct observation."

So said Austrian-Irish physicist Erwin Schrodinger when outlining his quantum paradox, with a boxed cat by way of illustration.

On the subjects of observation and nuclear physics, the question bouncing around for over ten years has been whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-il has a highly enriched uranium (HEU) programme, besides the plutonium one Pyongyang admits to.

Now it is time to reveal the contents of the box.

North Korea, under the February six-party agreement, has said it will list its nuclear programmes in full at the next round of six-party talks, possibly opening this weekend. US envoy to the talks Christopher Hill is already in the country; he arrived last Monday, and travelled to Yongbyon, just north of Pyongyang, to oversee the disablement process at three main nuclear facilities: a reactor, reprocessing plant and fuel rod factory.

If Kim says he has HEU, the cat is out of the box, and earlier denials will be confirmed as North Korean lies.

If North Korea continues to insist that it has not been running any clandestine programmes, this could undermine the prospects for the six-party talks, and even threaten the continuation of the hard-earned agreement on North Korea's denuclearisation steps. In other words, if Kim says there is no HEU, it remains in the box, in an indeterminate state, neither there nor not there, until observed.

If he has HEU, he might bury it, and not declare it, on the assumption no one is going to find it.

That puts the US, which takes the lead here, in a predicament. It really wants to open the box, and not just be told what is or is not in it. It is unlikely to pat Kim on the back if he admits to HEU; it will be seriously unimpressed if he does not, and will have to decide what to do about it.

The extent of any HEU programme is not Washington's only concern; it is still uncertain whether Pyongyang's declaration will extend to plutonium stocks, let alone actual nuclear weapons.

Progress towards removing North Korea from the US list of 'state sponsors of terrorism' and terminating the application of the Trading with the Enemy Act as part of the process of eventually normalising diplomatic relations with the North, will be dependent on the extent of this weekend's revelations. While the United States is ready to take North Korea off its terrorism list, this would irk Japan.

Yet the prospect of being removed from the blacklist may not be enough of an incentive for Pyongyang to come clean on any HEU programme, if it has one. The box may well not be opened, and Kim's cat will remain neither alive nor dead -- which any Schrodinger could tell you.