Cristina takes the helm

On Monday, President Nestor Kirchner will hand over to his wife and handpicked successor, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, an unprecedented event in Latin America.  Fernandez de Kirchner achieved a first-round victory in October elections, despite a half-hearted campaign lacking new proposals.

Fernandez de Kirchner has already been criticised by some as nothing more than an extension of her husband's presidency.  This criticism appears unfair: the president-elect has had a long political career, and is known for her strong personality.  However, the two have acted virtually as a unit, both during Kirchner's time as governor of Santa Cruz province and during his presidency, and have shown few discrepancies in policy preferences: indeed, each forms part of the inner circle of advisers of the other.

The area in which change is most likely is that of foreign relations, given Fernandez de Kirchner's strong interest in an improved international profile versus her husband's evident boredom with matters abroad.  On the economic front, Kirchner appears set to maintain his micro-managing role, even out of office: Fernandez de Kirchner has shown little appetite for economic policy, beyond seeking greater dialogue with business, while Kirchner is generally seen as his own de facto economy minister. 

The fact that Kirchner has seemingly succeeded in maintaining in post two of his own most economically powerful deputies: Planning Minister Julio de Vido and Internal Commerce Secretary Guillermo Moreno -- responsible for the government's dubious inflation policy -- suggests that neither Fernandez de Kirchner nor her economy minister, Martin Lousteau, will take the lead in managing economic policy.  Given the business community's doubts over that policy, greater dialogue will not be enough to improve the investment climate, especially if the favourable international conditions enjoyed by Kirchner begin to sour.