Is Cuba on the brink of change?

This week could be momentous for Cuba's political future.

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A list of candidates will be published on Sunday for elections to the country's National Assembly and provincial legislatures, which are scheduled for January 20. Deputies elected in this poll will choose the Council of State by next March, which will be tasked with choosing the head of state and government. In order for President Fidel Castro -- who yielded power to his brother, Raul, in July 2006 to undergo gastric surgery  -- to be re-elected to these roles, he will have to be a candidate in January. If he is not named as a candidate, Raul will be confirmed formally.

Since taking office, Raul has shown signs of wanting to move Cuba towards a more collective style of leadership, with greater accountability for officials at all levels.  He has also suggested -- most notably in a key speech this July -- that he favours some economic liberalisation.  However, his elder brother continues to cast a shadow, limiting any fundamental shift in the balance of power, much less real change:

• Fidel failed to endorse Raul's pro-reform address, and his government has not put forward any concrete changes.
• Raul's official call for debate has been taken up half-heartedly in the official press and other institutions.

Growing unrest

While the Cuban political system has shown itself able to function perfectly well in Fidel's absence, there have been growing signs of unease:

• Party and work-place meetings have voiced dissatisfaction with salaries, obstacles for legal micro-businesses, state tutelage over agrarian cooperatives, foreigner-only areas, and -- most worryingly for the government -- deficiencies in the health and education systems, its landmark achievements.
• Emigration is resurging, particularly through Mexico to the United States.

In this context, dissident leader, Osvaldo Paya has announced the formation of 'committees of dialogue', which will aim to facilitate public discussion on legal mechanisms to effect political change:

• Paya in the past has been a particularly effective opponent of the regime.
• While this initiative is unlikely to produce concrete changes in the short term, its timing could add to any discomfort the electoral process produces for the government.

Ultimately, whatever the condition of Fidel's health, and irrespective of whether he is formally 're-elected', the prestige and legitimacy he lends to the government means there are limited prospects for real change for as long he survives.

The other key driver of more fundamental change may be the election of a new US administration next year, which may make a meaningful, if gradual, attempt to engage with Havana.  Growing discontent in the US business community with the long-standing embargo, combined with recognition of the need at least to try to influence the post-Fidel transition, make this fairly likely, irrespective of whether the next president is Republican or Democrat.