Chavez totters

Hugo Chavez may be facing his twelfth electoral process since he took office nine years ago, but there will be no signs of campaign-weariness in the irrepressible Venezuelan President this week. He cannot afford any complacency; his whole socialist vision is at stake.

A referendum on a proposed constitutional reform takes place on Sunday.  The controversial reform includes a number of provisions that are intended to buttress the dominance of the executive, including unlimited presidential re-election, greater executive authority over the Central Bank -- including presidential control over international reserves -- and expanded state of emergency powers.  However, there is a real possibility of a government defeat.

Recent opinion polls are ambivalent about Chavez's chances.  Many show a majority are threatening to vote 'no', although the 'yes' vote wins among citizens who say they will definitely vote; other recent polls show a majority in favour of the reform. 

The opposition has again failed to capitalise on negative sentiment, or even on unprecedented calls by Chavez's former defence minister and other former intimates to vote against the reform.  With turnout likely to be low, due to security concerns and voter burnout, this distinction is crucial: if 'no' voters fail to go to the polls, the government will gain another victory.  Yet even such a win could look unconvincing if turnout is very low, demonstrating widespread citizen apathy or disapproval.

Recent international scandals involving Chavez may do him no harm:

• In early November, at the Ibero-American Summit in Chile, Chavez became embroiled in a dispute with the Spanish delegation after attacking former Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar, which ended with the King of Spain telling Chavez to 'shut up'.
• On November 21, Colombian President Alvaro Uribe abruptly terminated Chavez's efforts to mediate with the FARC rebel group aimed at securing the release of hostages held by the rebels.  Chavez responded by calling Uribe a 'liar' and 'freezing' bilateral relations. 

The high-decibel disputes may serve Chavez at home with at least part of his domestic audience, allowing him to appear as a nationalist defending Venezuelan interests.  But in the longer term, such erratic foreign policy may discourage foreign investment and serve to isolate Venezuela in the region  -- particularly if increasing pressures lead Chavez to adopt a similarly aggressive tone on a more regular basis.

Most significant may prove to be Chavez's reaction to the referendum outcome.  He recently suggested that he might be forced 'to consider his position' if the reform is defeated, a veiled threat to resign that may encourage his supporters to turn out. 

Were he to ignore a 'no' vote -- possibly also arguing low turnout, or fraud -- and promulgate the constitutional changes by executive decree, this would reverse his long-standing claim to represent popular opinion.  The lack of a credible opposition alternative means that the weakening of Chavez could produce a dangerous power vacuum, at a time when his current term still has five years to run. If greater weakness leads to further ruptures in foreign relations, political and economic instability will increase.