Is Annapolis just a 'photo op'?

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is determined to make a Palestinian state the Bush administration's swansong. But it usually pays to be pessimistic about Middle East matters.

After weeks of speculation and lowering of expectations, it has become clear that the US Middle East peace conference in Annapolis on Tuesday will be a one-day meeting, preceded by various consultations the day before.  But two key issues remain opaque.

At first, a great deal of emphasis was placed on prior Israeli-Palestinian agreement on a joint declaration as a prelude to negotiations. This would ensure that the conference would be more than just a 'photo opportunity'. 

But that is precisely what it seems likely to be.  The negotiators, who are still far apart on the key issues, are still trying to produce a document, but they may end up reading separate statements.  This suits the Israeli prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is too weak to offer substantive concessions, but leaves Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas out on a limb in a process that was originally designed to bolster him against Hamas.

Another key question is whether the Saudis will attend.  Washington is desperate for Arab states -- particularly Riyadh as the author of the 2002 Arab peace initiative -- to give some Arab cover for Abbas to make compromises.  This will go down to the wire.  Arab League foreign ministers are planning an eleventh-hour meeting before the conference, and it remains to be seen if they will consider Olmert's recent promises to freeze new settlement building a satisfactory concession.