Rudd wields hope

A long period of prosperity and low unemployment often guarantees the return of an incumbent government.  But this week should herald a change of government and a new, younger leader taking office in Canberra.

Despite presiding over Australia's 17th consecutive year of growth, Prime Minister John Howard's Liberal-National coalition, which has held power since March 1996, looks stale and out of touch on modern issues. The momentum is now with Kevin Rudd's centre-left Labor party opposition, which holds a strong poll lead and appears to have a better measure of the country's pulse.

Trench warfare?

Rudd is a complicated brew of town and country: a devout Christian who endured a childhood of hardship on a Queensland dairy farm, but later majored in Chinese language and Chinese history and now speaks fluent Mandarin. He bristles at the notion that he is a younger, more acceptable version of Howard, yet Australian media continue to draw the comparison: a man with the same conservative core as Howard, but a more effective mouthpiece for a generation thirsting for change.

His message is simple: he promises to combine Australia's prosperity -- the government's chief selling point -- with fairness. He has skilfully broadened his party's electoral appeal this year by endorsing the government's economic policy and making the environment, industrial relations and tax reform alternative battlegrounds for his campaign.

The battlegrounds

Labor would be a conservative economic manager in government. Rudd has signalled support for the central bank's inflation-targeting policy and adherence to fiscal conservatism and broad agreement on foreign policy -- although Labor has consistently opposed the commitment of combat troops to Iraq.

There are three main areas of policy difference:

• Rudd's commitment to the environment has been a vote-winner. Earlier this year, Labor confirmed that it would ratify the Kyoto Protocol, increase mandatory renewable energy targets, and introduce a cap and trade emissions trading scheme.
• Rudd has made political capital on the unpopularity of 'WorkChoices' -- a piece of industrial relations legislation intended to increase employment by cutting the overall cost of employing labour. The opposition's promise to roll back some of its more contentious provisions has played well with low-skilled employees, who think WorkChoices will lead to a weaker bargaining position for them.
• Rudd plans to defer income tax cuts for those earning over 180,000 Australian dollars per year, and to reduce the number of personal income tax rates from four to three by 2013-2014. Savings from tax deferrals would be spent on education expense rebates and hospitals.

However, these policy nuances are secondary to Rudd's most destructive campaigning weapon -- the prospect of new hope and generational change. In this respect, Howard is hamstrung; he can only argue that Australia does not need new leadership, but the right leadership.

Victory looks assured for Rudd; his main concern is the geographic distribution of its supporters: Labor could still fall short of the 16 additional seats it requires to secure a parliamentary majority.