Russia: the plot thickens

Moscow has become a crucible of plot and intrigue -- and it is being played out in both public and private.

Recent weeks have seen a succession of curious 'spontaneous' rallies and meetings in public squares and theatre halls in support of President Vladimir Putin. And Russia's ruling elite, who profit from Putin's presidency, are hatching a plot to allow Putin to run for a third term without amending the constitution.

Yet Putin is invariably one step ahead of the pack; he refuses to run for a third term and is devising a far more ingenious plan to retain power.

'Moral authority'

Putin's plan depends on pro-Kremlin United Russia's performance in parliamentary elections on December 2. United Russia is likely to emerge victorious, scooping the majority of seats in the State Duma, though it may not win the two-thirds required for a constitutional majority.

The party -- until recently widely perceived as a faceless gaggle of bureaucrats -- is actively seeking to capitalise on Putin's support by using his portraits and statements as part of its electoral platform. Yet Putin has been equivocal of late in his support of United Russia, stating that he only supports it for lack of viable alternatives. By doing so, Putin is effectively asking people to vote, not so much for United Russia, but for him personally. He claims that popular support expressed through an election would give him the necessary 'moral authority' to remain a force in Russian politics.

Return to dictatorship? 

If United Russia dominates parliament, one option is for Putin to become prime minister and prod Russia towards parliamentary democracy. A strong performance by United Russia with Putin at the helm will ensure a move away from the super-presidential system built by Yeltsin and buttressed by Putin, and towards a stronger legislature and government. At worst, it raises the spectre of a return to authoritarian one-party rule in the country, and the possibility of dictatorship.

If United Russia underperforms, another option may gain currency:  the creation of an ad hoc 'national leader' post, which Putin could fill when he steps down. This would endow Putin with the moral authority to rule that he craves. 

In any event, Putin will remain a formidable force even after his term in office expires in March. His power ambitions are boundless and he needs to cater for his personal security as well as the wellbeing of his inner circle, which will almost certainly be threatened if a new president is allowed to consolidate power in the Kremlin. But Putin needs to act fast: he will remember from his own presidency that members of the ancien regime can see their power fade quickly .