Croatia: personality politics

Croats voting for change in parliamentary elections on Sunday do not get much of a choice. 

Two major parties are slugging it out -- the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), now in power, and the centre-left Social Democrats (SDP), defeated in November 2003.  Either would take Croatia into the EU and NATO.

A newcomer leads the SDP -- Zoran Milanovic (41), a former diplomat who has a modern, media-savvy style.  The 'substance' comes from its candidate for premier, economics professor Ljubco Jurcic, who offers state interventionism and neo-liberal competitiveness at the same time. 

The HDZ is moderately pro-market, but as the incumbent, is vulnerable for the economy's less-than-stellar performance -- unemployment is sticky at 14.1% and much restructuring remains undone.

The SDP is just ahead of the HDZ in the polls, but yet another coalition will almost certainly emerge.  Croatia's minor parties mostly lean towards the SDP as a partner, if only to punish HDZ leader Ivo Sanader, whom they perceive as arrogant.