The Huckabee 'surge'

This week, a slightly portly, folksy former Arkansas governor will be on the presidential primary stump in Iowa. 

He is not the 'man from Hope' -- although the former Oval Office denizen may be in town, shilling for his wife's campaign.  This former Little Rock honcho is Mike Huckabee, an erstwhile Baptist preacher and weight-loss poster-child who has surged into second place in polls of Iowa Republican voters. 

With his populist wiles and gift for bon mots, Huckabee has become a media darling, and dark horse pick of the beltway cognoscenti.  Unusually for a Republican, he has backed tax rises for improved education funding.  He also has charm to spare.  But Huckabee runs his campaign on a shoestring, and does not enjoy much support among major donors and the party establishment.  In Iowa, he relies on his daughter as his media manager.

From preacher to president?

These disadvantages make his rise in Iowa all the more remarkable, where quips and shoe-leather have brought him within seven percentage points of the current leader, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney -- who has millions in his campaign war chest and has run a series of slick television ads. 

According to a New York Times / CBS poll, many Iowa Republicans emphasise personal characteristics as the reasons behind their candidate choices: sharing of values ranks as high as agreement on issues, and many are looking for someone they deem honest and trustworthy. A candidate's conservativism is also a priority, and ranks ahead of experience in explaining caucus-goers' choices. Huckabee's backers strongly think he shares theirs.

The first graph shows that 14% of Republican caucus-goers remain completely up for grabs. And the second shows that it is still too early to be certain that voters will stay loyal to their candidate.

Huckabee's rise has inspired comparisons with former President Bill Clinton, who came from nowhere to take the 1992 Democratic nomination.  Yet he almost certainly lacks the political staying power of the 'comeback kid'.  Even if he captures Iowa -- a small, largely rural state -- he will not have the resources to compete in larger states such as California and New York during an abbreviated primary season. 

The 'hayseed' factor

Moreover, he also lacks 'slick Willie's' ability to appeal both to country bumpkins and coastal cosmopolitans.  Clinton was educated in Georgetown, University College Oxford, and Yale Law School, and could sound informed on topics from monetary policy to pig farming.  Huckabee attended Ouachita Baptist University in Arkadelphia, Arkansas and was once fooled by CBC comedian Rick Mercer into urging Canadians to save their 'National Igloo'.  Clinton is town and country; ol' Huckabee is just country.