Pakistan: Commonwealth wrath?

A threat from the Commonwealth, the 53-member body consisting mainly of former UK colonies, to suspend Pakistan from the organisation unless President Pervez Musharraf rescinds emergency rule, may be realised on Thursday.

Following an extraordinary meeting of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG), which deals with serious breaches of the group's guiding principles, Secretary General Don McKinnon said Pakistan had "seriously violated the Commonwealth's fundamental values".

With its meaningful bilateral relations with the US, the UK and other developed countries still intact, Musharraf will not be too concerned about the Commonwealth's symbolic gesture. Suspension is inconvenient but hardly threatening to his survival. Even if suspension from the Commonwealth does not trouble Musharraf, the Commonwealth may feel it has salvaged some credibility for the group as its leaders meet this week in Uganda.

Pakistan, which was suspended from the Commonwealth in 1999 after Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup and then readmitted in 2004, is under increasing pressure from western allies to lift the state of emergency. Last week, both UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon, and President George Bush urged Musharraf to do so. The president's attempts to shore up his position are not working, raising opportunities for his rivals and dilemmas for his supporters. Retirement' might soon be the only option.