Poland: stormy seas ahead

Breaking the stranglehold of the Kaczynski brothers on Polish politics was tougher than prising apart Siamese twins. But with the filial bonds finally severed, the country now faces a period of turbulent cohabitation.

By the time you read this, President Lech Kaczynski should have nominated Donald Tusk, whose Civic Platform (PO) party won last month's parliamentary election, as Poland's new prime minister. The prime minister in-waiting will then form a coalition government with the centrist Peasant's Party. The new cabinet will be sworn in by Wednesday, when the next parliament sitting starts.

That is the easy part. Tusk then has to gain the support of more than half of members of parliament for his new cabinet at the following lower house sitting. Poland's constitution requires that at least 231 deputies of the 460-member parliament are present during the vote.

Tusk needs to avoid provoking new conflicts with Kaczynski, who has an important foreign policy role. Kaczynski has promised to interpose his veto rarely in the forthcoming period of cohabitation, but that may not be worth much given his simultaneous pledge to champion the national interest.

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