India and Russia: souring friendship?

Diplomatic niceties between Moscow and Delhi were forgotten last month. Russia's minister of foreign affairs snubbed his Indian counterpart at the airport. Then the visiting diplomat was frisked for good measure.

A temporary blip, or is the long-standing relationship under strain? Bilateral ties will be under the spotlight this week when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visits Moscow. He should receive a warmer reception than his hapless foreign minister. On the agenda is the finalisation of an agreement on the joint production of a fifth generation fighter jet.

The Indian press has been giddy over the trip. Some newspapers have made much of reports that the Indian side was forced to agree to a separate meeting with newly appointed Russian Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov as well as President Vladimir Putin, because of Moscow's new sensitivities over the prime ministerial role. Others have heralded Singh's trip as a sign of the stability and continuity of longstanding military ties -- symbolised, for example, in the Brahmos missile joint development project.

Thus, the signs of discord betray Delhi and Moscow's uncertainty over whether they will collaborate or compete on future military projects.

India has shown willingness to collaborate with other countries on weapons development and production and is hunting for acquisitions. Russia stands to be a major beneficiary of this military modernisation drive. Yet Moscow may choose to make itself a strong competitor for major contracts. However, supply, pricing, delivery and expertise issues are bugbears.

Defence contractors elsewhere may see this as a golden opportunity to enter the Indian market. Washington, with whom Delhi has enjoyed warming relations in spite of the uncertain future of the India-US civilian nuclear deal, will be watching very closely. Two US companies, along with several European competitors, are bidding for a major 126 fighter jet deal against Russia.

Recent ruffled feathers show that India's days of serving as a loyal client to Moscow are long gone. While Russia may view a Washington-Delhi rapprochement with concern, India is no less wary of improving relations between China and Russia. Yet in the short-term, realpolitik takes over. Russia's abundance of natural resources, nuclear know-how and armaments will retain India's engagement for some years to come.

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