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The annual EU progress reports on the seven candidate and potential candidate countries hoping to join the exclusive club are due for publication this week, and in school report terms, it is a C-minus: could do better.
Although the EU hails enlargement as one of its most powerful policy tools -- pointing at the successful transitions in Southern and Eastern Europe -- pressure is growing to slow down Brussels' expansion drive. Barely half of the European public are currently in favour of further enlargement and EU leaders secretly regret having let Bulgaria and Romania join, when corruption and organised crime remain rampant and the rule-of-law is deficient. Candidate Macedonia, for example, was hoping to start accession talks next year, but this is increasingly unlikely, as the progress report will reportedly criticise its malfunctioning parliament and administration and unresolved ethnic problems. Similarly, Croatia is still hoping to become a member by 2009, but the report is preparing the ground for a postponement of that date by emphasising delays in tax reforms and unresolved ethnic tensions, rather than focussing on achievements. Ethnic relations and institutional shortcoming will also be the reason why enlargement remains a distant prospect for Albania, Bosnia, Montenegro and Serbia.
The report will not cause much of a stir in Turkey, where hopes of joining are greatly reduced -- despite having patiently waited and reformed for over four decades. As usual, Ankara will be criticised on human rights, the role of the military and its failure to make progress on the Cyprus issue. On the bright side, at least two more negotiating chapters of 35 policy areas -- consumer protection and trans-European networks -- could be opened in the next few weeks. Turkey's true roasting will come when France -- which is openly opposed to Turkish membership -- accedes to the EU's rotating presidency in July 2008.
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