question of the week
Will there be war in the Horn of Africa this week?
Ethiopia and Eritrea have exhausted diplomatic options over a dispute on the demarcation of a new border and war now looks more likely than peace.
Last week, Eritrea alleged that it had uncovered an Ethiopian plan to attack in early November, allegations that were quickly rejected by Addis Ababa. It was the culmination of rhetoric between the Horn of Africa neighbours that has intensified sharply since a failed attempt in September to draw up a new border.
Unresolved economic and political issues resulting from Eritrea's independence in 1993 have festered like an ugly wound and were the cause of a bloody war between the two countries from 1998 to 2000. Ethiopia has refused to implement a 2002 Boundary Commission ruling that delineated the border, after it was revealed that the flashpoint border town of Badme was on the Eritrean side. Neither the UN nor the United States has exerted serious pressure on Addis Ababa to comply -- much to the frustration of the increasingly authoritarian regime in Eritrea.
Addis Ababa and Asmara have consequently pursued efforts to destabilise each other, mainly by sponsoring opposition groups. This proxy battle reached more serious proportions in the context of the conflict in Somalia, where Eritrea and Ethiopia backed opposing sides. Eritrea sees an advantage in having Ethiopia's military bogged down by the insurgency in Somalia, as well as by an intensifying insurgency in the Ogaden region of Ethiopia.
Both sides have escalated the number of troops in and around their border area. Despite its entanglement in Somalia, Ethiopia remains capable of engagement with Eritrea over the border, and its military is better equipped than that of Eritrea.
Renewed conflict would have devastating economic consequences for both sides, but that does not look to be deterring bellicose rhetoric from both sides.
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