Storm clouds gathering?

La Niña will be reborn this month: strengthening atmospheric conditions has led the United States' National Weather Service (NWS) to predict the arrival of the weather anomaly this month.

Although hurricane forecasting remains a very imprecise science, the cooling of sea surfaces in the Pacific Ocean, as happened in September, is an early warning system for imminent tempestuous weather. La Niña favours more Atlantic hurricanes and El Niño favours fewer hurricanes. Earlier this year, the NWS predicted an 85% chance of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

But the elements are fickle. Hurricane-spawned disasters can occur even in years with near-normal or below-normal levels of activity. If the Americas are lucky, the 2007 hurricane season may consist of several hurricanes hitting sparsely populated areas rather than one major hurricane hitting a heavily populated area. Nevertheless, the potential for another disastrous season, such as the Katrina year in 2005, clearly exists -- and US disaster response capacity may still be insufficient.

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