in-depth
Last chance saloon
Turkey's Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, under huge pressure at home to launch a military crackdown on Kurdish rebels based in northern Iraq, will petition the West one final time on Monday.
Erdogan's tête-à-tête with US President George Bush in Washington probably represents Turkey's last chance to secure Western help in its struggle to neutralise the threat from Kurdistan Workers party (PKK) guerrillas and avert military action.
Erdogan wants Bush to promise concrete help -- such as twisting the arms of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leaders to take effective action to stop PKK guerrillas coming down from their mountain bases or mount joint patrols to shore up the border. This would help him off the horns of his current dilemma and reduce US-Turkish tensions.
Erdogan knows that Turkey's Kurdish problem needs to be solved by political means, but the armed forces and the public are demanding instant action -- and that has to be military. Lethal PKK attacks in recent weeks have increased pressure for a decisive response. On the other hand, previous full-scale military incursions have been relatively unsuccessful, while key allies Washington and the EU are firmly opposed. Only the KRG can take effective action against the PKK, but Ankara traditionally insists on dealing with Baghdad -- for what it is worth -- to avoid empowering the KRG and setting an autonomous precedent for its own Kurds.
Bush also needs to find a way to square this circle. As one Kurd recently put it, the United States is like a man with two wives, trying to keep both happy. Northern Iraq is the only bright spot in post-Saddam Iraq, the only sanctuary for Americans and the most likely site for future US bases in the country. The last thing Bush needs is for his closest Iraqi partner to be destabilised. On the other hand, Turkey is not only a key NATO ally, but also the transit area for most of the air cargo supporting US operations in Iraq, and this could be at risk from retaliation if tensions rise further.
The Kurds themselves faces some quandaries, too. KRG leaders are claiming that the Turkish troop buildup points to a wider attack on KRG autonomy masquerading as action against the PKK. The KRG could deal with the PKK threat if it so chose; it has taken the PKK on before when it suited its interests. But the PKK card is one of the few the KRG has to play when bargaining with its infinitely more powerful neighbour, and it does not want to play it too soon.
It is a game of brinkmanship. If the KRG holds out too long for a quid pro quo, such as Turkish acquiescence in its attempts to incorporate Kirkuk and its oilfields into the KRG, it risks retaliatory action by Turkey, on which it depends heavily for investment, trade routes, power, water and many food supplies. For their part, the PKK leaders seem to be engaged in a last ditch attempt to revive their flagging cause by internationalising the Kurdish issue and reversing the modest Kurdish political and cultural gains Erdogan has presided over in Turkey.
Erdogan is likely to authorise military action, but try and limit its scope. The best hope of success lies in Bush's hands on Monday -- or the onset of wintry weather in the mountains, making most military operations impossible until the spring.
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