Has despotism triumphed over democracy in Burma?

UN officials are trying to schedule a return visit to Burma for Special Envoy Ibrahim Gambari this week -– he will aim to bring the collective will of the international community to bear on Senior General Than Schwe.

He is likely to fail.

When Burma's military government ordered an armed crackdown on peaceful pro-democracy protests led by thousands of barefoot, red-robed monks, world leaders reacted with united condemnation. Yet taking on Burma's State Peace and Development Council -- a cabal of military officers who wrested power from a previous military junta in 1988 -- is like rooting out an obdurate, embedded molar. It has redrawn aspects of Burmese society and its institutions and is shrewd in dealings with neighbours:

• It neutered the threat of a student uprising long ago by shipping out students to distant rural towns and slashing the length of university courses.
• It has built its own social movement: nearly half of the country's 55 million population are on the register of the Union Solidarity and Development Association, a pro-regime movement which orchestrates a sense of calm after upsets.
• It wields oil as a geopolitical weapon. With oil supplies scarce, energy trumps ideals every time. India opposes military rule in Burma in principle, but in its rush to shore up its energy supplies, Delhi has strengthened diplomatic ties with Rangoon and sent state-owned firms to explore Burmese waters.
• It exploits strategic rivalry between Beijing and Delhi, allowing Chinese navy vessels access to the Bay of Bengal.
• It knows its worst enemy can also be its best friend. The junta keeps the Westernised, photogenic pro-democracy activist Aung San Suu Kyi under lock and key when the international community is quiescent; when pressure builds on Rangoon, it lets her walk free, thereby appeasing foreign ministries and human rights groups in the West.

Burma's generals depend on the outside world for food, investment in transport and electricity networks. United action by Rangoon's trade partners would give them no choice but to comply with calls for democracy. But the junta's deft stewardship of internal affairs and shrewd exploitation of international differences leaves little chance of that. The junta has had 45 years to learn the art of military despotism, and it shows. 

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