One Week later...

One Week Later...

Li keeps schtum

In China: soul-searching we said that Provincial chief Li Keqiang may be Hu's preferred heir apparent, but the president may not have enough clout to unilaterally decide the next leader.

  • Last week, Li dodged discussion of personnel issues and wholeheartedly endorsed Hu's policies.
  • A wise move. Discussion of promotions is dangerous in China's authoritarian system where advancement is based on avoiding pitfalls and cultivating older leaders.
EU treaty: tough talking

In EU Treaty, part deux, we wrote that we would see renewed attempts to agree on a text for the ill-fated EU treaty, but that the awkward squad's ranks seem to have swelled since last time round.

  •  EU leaders descended on Lisbon late last week, but some countries are still talking tough over lingering demands.
  • A deal is within reach, but the EU leaders still faced last minute wrangles with Poland and Italy.
  • If the leaders back the new text, they should formally sign it in December.
Fragile coalition in Kiev

In Stricken Kiev,  we wrote that last year's coalition squabbles will be repeated in Ukraine as the political elite struggles to agree on the prime minister and the new cabinet.

  • But early last week, parties linked to Ukraine's "Orange Revolution" initialled a post-election coalition agreement on Monday, putting Yulia Tymoshenko on course to form the next government.
  • However, the revived Orange coalition looks fragile because of poor inter-party relations resulting from the collapse of the first Tymoshenko government, policy divisions inside the Yushchenko camp and the likelihood of personal rivalries.
Bhutto returns

In  Bhutto: returning hero,  we thought that Benazir Bhutto would receive a warmer welcome than did her fellow exiled former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif when she arrived back in Pakistan.

  • Bhutto did indeed end eight years of self-imposed exile and returned home to contest national elections.
  • She returns at a critical juncture. Her deal with Musharraf offers few guarantees amid uncertainty around the unpopular president's status and widespread opposition to her alliance with him.

News to us:

US dollar hits new low
The US dollar has been dragged down to a new low against the euro after the latest piece of US economic data. In afternoon trading on Wednesday last week, the euro hit a high of $1.4305.
Dalai Lama honour angers China
China summons the US ambassador to protest over Washington's decision to award the Dalai Lama one of its highest honours.
And finally…
French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his wife of 11 years, Cecilia, have divorced "by mutual consent".

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Key developments and outlook on the issues that dominated our last edition, covering October 6th to October 12th.
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