Kingmaker Gore?

Former US Vice President Al Gore's self-importance is often lampooned in popular culture. He is mocked as the self-proclaimed inventor of the internet, although he never postured as such. Others blast the film that helped Gore win a share of the Nobel Peace Prize as a factually inaccurate political gimmick. Although his demiurgic credentials are disputed, the overwhelmingly positive perception of Gore among Democratic voters means his potential as kingmaker in the US presidential election is powerful.

Before he won the Nobel prize, most Democratic voters said that if Gore said he was supporting one of the presidential candidates it would not make any difference to them, but the number saying it would influence them favourably was not insignificant. About one-in-five Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters said Gore's endorsement would make them more likely to support a candidate, while just 7% said his endorsement would drive them away.

Whip hand?

His stock is likely to have gone up  since he became a Nobel laureate. Within hours of the Nobel prize announcement, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, the two Democratic presidential frontrunners, had congratulated Gore. They knew that the value of a Gore endorsement had just increased a hundredfold.

If Gore decides not to throw his hat into the ring in a another bid for the White House, both leading candidates will solicit his support:

• The Clintons want to harness Gore's popularity among the online 'netroots' wing of the Democratic Party. Last month, Bill Clinton appeared on stage with Gore at the annual Clinton Global Initiative in New York, in which global warming was one of the main themes.
• Obama has yoked Gore's Nobel prize to his own campaign theme of challenging conventional wisdom on Capitol Hill. He praised Gore's courage in challenging Washington's sceptics and taking the lead on the climate crisis facing the planet.

Clinton is considered the less likely beneficiary of Gore's support. Relations between the two have been strained since the late 1990s, when Gore did little to hide his annoyance during the Monica Lewinsky affair. Obama also needs Gore more than Clinton. The Democratic presidential contest has remained fairly stable in recent months, with Clinton leading Obama by 42% to 25%.

If you can't beat 'em…

Indeed, Clinton's lead in the race for the White House is now so formidable that Gore may consider her unbeatable. In the unlikely event that he does compete for the Democratic nomination, he may only have a spoiler effect, drawing votes away from the candidate that has the most ideological similarities to him.

The Sunday Telegraph recently wrote that Gore's Nobel Prize victory had "increased his artillery" should he decide to run, but thought it was only likely if Clinton made an unexpected slip.

Read more about the 'spoiler effect' here.