Stricken Kiev

It may be a case of deja-vu in Kiev this week. 

As the official results of the Ukrainian parliamentary vote are announced, last year's coalition squabbles will be repeated as the political elite struggles to agree on the prime minister and the new cabinet.  A coalition of the pro-Western Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYuT) and the pro-presidential Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defence (NU-NS), two parties stemming from the 'Orange Revolution', looked like a foregone conclusion until President Viktor Yushchenko confounded his allies two weeks ago.  He demanded that outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych's Russia-friendly Party of Regions be included in the government.

Tymoshenko may seem to be going along with a 'grand coalition', but Regions has already rejected the little she is offering -- control of the Audit Chamber, and some deputy minister posts.  The three forces -- Regions, BYuT and NU-NS -- simply cannot be yoked together to everyone's satisfaction:

• NU-NS is a bloc, not a homogeneous grouping, part of which inclines to Regions, part to BYuT, and there is a risk that under pressure of an enforced three-way alliance, it will fly apart. 
• BYuT cannot ally with Regions, on policy grounds. 
• Yushchenko and Tymoshenko have been enemies since the president sacked her from the premiership in September 2006.

A coalition -- whatever its eventual composition -- may work in the short term, but its long-term viability is doubtful.  Ukraine looks set for political instability again, just as in the previous parliamentary term.