Soul-searching in China

China can be enigmatic. It is ideologically yoked to Marxist ideals, but practically bound to free market economics. It wants to create a "harmonious society", but has huge social inequality. It has a hazy sense of its own identity, no anointed successor for its president, and a contentious relationship with Taiwan for good measure.

Choosing a successor

There will be fierce debate over all these issues beginning Tuesday in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing as the Chinese Communist Party holds its 17th Congress. 

On the leadership front:

• Hu Jintao will serve five more years as president, but there is no clear successor waiting in the wings. 
• Provincial chief Li Keqiang may be Hu's preferred heir apparent, but the president may not have enough clout to unilaterally decide the next leader.
• With five years remaining on Hu's clock, there is all to play for.

Delegates will discuss if China's economy can be tamed. Even while it continues to grow at 10% per year, the country's economy showed dangerous signs of overheating, with core products such as pork soaring in price.  Leaders will remember what the west forgets: protests in 1989 started not with student unrest, but rapidly inflating prices, making it impossible for urban-dwellers in Beijing to buy the essentials.

This brings the question of social inequality to the fore:

• Last year, there were tens of thousands of protests in China against the lack of pensions, cheap healthcare and education, or protection from unemployment both for rural-dwellers and laid-off workers in the city.
• The government will continue to suppress dissent, but knows that censorship and detention was not enough to prevent previous dynasties and governments being toppled by social unrest.

Aside from domestic issues, there may be some soul-searching over the country's global identity.  The United States is not globally popular right now, and this has given a golden opportunity for China to take an international role.  But a new US president will be elected next year , and Chinese leaders need to decide now how to project themselves as moderate powerbrokers in the international community in the face of a new US leader.

Talking Taiwan

And closer to home? There will be discussion of scenarios if Taiwan's opposition Nationalist party candidate, Ma Ying-jeou, wins the presidential election -- and if he does not: 

• Ma has stressed dialogue with the mainland, and moves toward some form of closer association with China may be on the cards if he wins.
• But if the Democratic Political Party's Frank Hsieh wins, Beijing will make it clear that moves toward Taiwan independence will provoke a military response -- although the warnings will be muted in the run-up to the 2008 Olympics.

Big issues are at stake and it is important to read between the lines of any official statements from the Congress this week. China is not about to explode, but every single decision by its leadership will inevitably make someone unhappy, and they will have to tread carefully to maximise winners over losers.