Howard ponders election

It is only October, but Australian Prime Minister John Howard will already be making plans for Christmas.

He needs to call an election, and is expected to do so any day now. However, he will not want to schedule a poll for the festive season, when the electorate has other matters on its mind. He is lagging so significantly behind Labor leader Kevin Rudd, that there could be something of the turkey voting for Christmas when he finally declares.

On the first point, an election is due before January 19, so this makes November likely. On the second, Howard has been throwing out policy tidbits to the electorate during the phoney campaign that is currently underway, but his poll readings remain depressed. His trump card should be the economy. Australia has prospered under Howard and Treasurer Peter Costello. In terms of economic management, they lead the opinion polls. However, most Australians probably think that the good times will continue irrespective of who is in power. Howard is also exposed on the environment and Iraq, where he has been too close, for some, to the United States and President George Bush. 

Rudd is savvy enough not to let the prospect of retaking government go to his head, and so great is the prize of terminating the Howard era, that his colleagues will want to rally round and show a united front to the electorate.