A future for organised labour?

As General Motors (GM) and the United Auto Workers (UAW) this week hash out the details of their new contract, attention is turning to whether organised labour will retain a significant role in the US economy.

The GM-UAW agreement is generous to the union, and includes the establishment of a 55 billion dollar trust responsible for members' health benefits and increased pension payouts.  However, the company has made it clear that it will continue to shrink its workforce through buyouts.  Parallel moves by other automakers have slashed the UAW's membership rolls, undermining its financial and political clout.  The UAW's membership fell under 600,000 last year, down from 1.5 million in 1975.  Its experience parallels the decline of the US labour movement: the percentage of workers who are union members collapsed from 24.1% to 12.5% between 1985 and 2005.

However, the overall retreat of organised labour over the past 20 years conceals an important counter-trend -- surging service industry union membership, particularly in the healthcare and hospitality sectors.  The principal beneficiary has been Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which now claims almost 2 million members -- up from 480,000 in 1975.  Crucially, SEIU has made recruiting Hispanics a priority, including undocumented immigrants.  The UAW website is English-only and includes many tributes to historic union leaders; SEIU's web presence is slick, member-oriented and links to a parallel Spanish-language site.  This suggests that labour's decline will arrested, even as its presence in the manufacturing economy fades.