Burma: Imminent crackdown

Rangoon's 'Saffron Revolution' may not last.

The idea that the junta is at a loss as to how to deal with several weeks of anti-government demonstrations is naive. It is likely to restore order in the next few days and any suppression will be heavy handed.

The longer the junta allows the protests to continue, the weaker it looks. It has been widely condemned abroad, with even staunch ally China pushing for faster progress on 'reform'. But bolstered by natural resources that have attracted external attention and buoyed by nationalist pride, Burma's leaders have shown little inclination to heed the concerns of even friendly states.

The government is grappling with succession issues and serious economic challenges, notably a shortage of foreign exchange. Several leaders are elderly and ill, and tension between the two most senior generals -- Than Shwe and Maung Aye -- has delayed the selection of new strongmen. Problems abound on all fronts.

But one thing is certain: in a crisis, Burma's masters would rather hang together than hang separately.