Musharraf: Borrowed time?

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, a master of short-term survival, is facing his biggest test. His prospects of re-election on Saturday October 6 now hinge on the imminent decision of a nine-member Supreme Court bench. The Court is hearing petitions about whether Musharraf can remain both president and army chief.  The constitution says he cannot.  It is even unclear whether Musharraf is eligible to run for political office at all: an official -- including the army chief -- cannot stand for elected office until two years have elapsed since leaving his last post.

Yet there are three reasons why the Court may not deal a deathblow to Musharraf's career:  

• The recently reinstated Chief Justice Mohammad Iftikhar Chaudhry, an opposition icon, is not sitting on this bench, but some pro-Musharraf judges are.
• During recent court proceedings, judges have expressed the view that political matters should be decided outside the courts, and that the Supreme Court should not be expected to 'rock the boat' and overhaul the political system.
• Musharraf recently announced that he would give up his position as army chief should he be elected president on October 6.

If the Supreme Court refuses to rule him out on legal grounds, Musharraf's reinstatement is assured. He enjoys a comfortable majority in the presidential electoral college, which consists of the Senate, the National Assembly and four provincial assemblies.

Musharraf is also expected to force changes in the military command this week as he lines up loyalists for top positions. Two of the most senior generals are retiring on Sunday October 7: Lt. Gen. Tariq Majeed and Lt. Gen. Ashfaq Kiani are tipped respectively as the next vice chief of the army staff and chairman joint chief of the staff committee. One of them is likely to succeed Musharraf as army chief when he yields the post. 

There is another dynamic at play: the stalled negotiations between self-exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the leader of the Pakistan Peoples Party, and Musharraf.

Bhutto is returning to Pakistan on October 18 and her party has started showing its mettle in domestic politics. If Bhutto decides to help Musharraf by cutting a deal with him at this stage, it will relieve some of the pressure on him and enable him to undergo a managed transformation from military to civilian president.