Avoiding civil war in Lebanon

The chances of finding a consensus candidate for the Lebanese presidency have evaporated, given that negotiations to end the standoff over the issue dragged on for months.  This reflects the fact that no genuinely neutral candidate exists.

Amid tight security, pro-Syrian opposition MPs boycotted the session of parliament last week, which was supposed to elect a new president.  Since parliament lacked a two-thirds quorum, Speaker Nabih Berri postponed the session until October 23 to allow more time for talks. 

Following the assassination of Phalange MP Antoine Ghanem in Beirut in mid-September, the pro-government March 14 coalition has only a majority of two, which could be cut further if, as is likely, it loses the ensuing by-election.  The March 14 group believes that the constitution allows it to elect its own candidate by simple majority -- assuming it still has one by then -- ten days before the expiry of President Emile Lahoud's term on November 24, but the opposition disputes this.  Ghanem's killing, which clearly involved some Lebanese official involvement and most likely Syrian backing, seems to have been a signal to the March 14 group not to seek to elect an anti-Syrian candidate. 

If they pay no heed to the warning, Lahoud has said he will refuse to hand over power when his term expires, instead naming a figure to lead an interim government.  Names being touted include opposition Christian politician Michel Aoun and Army Commander Michel Suleiman. 

In that case, two rival governments can be expected to emerge in late November, echoing events in 1988.  This could represent the first step towards renewed civil war.  Further down the road, the judgment in the international tribunal investigating the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri could be the trigger for this conflict.