A diplomatic 'soft touch'?

Despite Vladimir Putin's recent bravado, the world may discover this week that the Kremlin is a softer touch than widely believed.

Trilateral negotiations involving Azerbaijan, Russia and the United States are expected to take place this week in Baku. The focus will be on the Russian proposal to operate the Gabala radar station -- which Moscow leases from Azerbaijan -- jointly with the United States.

Moscow will be surprisingly ready to strike a compromise. Putin's administration, buoyed by very high oil prices, is much more interested in making money than war and is unwilling to be drawn into any sort of military competition with the West.

Vladislav Surkov, the man widely seen as the principal Kremlin ideologue, has drawn up a two-pillar doctrine: Russia's 'sovereign democracy' and its international economic competitiveness.  Growing investments by Russian private and state companies in the West, their willingness to float on Western bourses and attract Western partners indicate that the business aspect of Russian-Western relations is more solid than Russia's political rhetoric would have us believe. Furthermore, the fusion of political, economic and personal business interests in post-Soviet Russia is key to why Moscow will not want to be drawn into another Cold War. 

Russia's proposal to use Azerbaijan as an alternative site for the US air shield reveals its fear at the prospect of US radars and interceptor missiles in Eastern Europe. It remains suspicious of Washington's true intentions and treats the nuclear threat from 'rogue states' as a poorly disguised excuse to target Russia. The countries chosen to host parts of the US infrastructure in Europe -- Poland and the Czech Republic -- are hardly Moscow-friendly. This reinforces Russia's suspicions of US intentions. 

Azerbaijan, while not wholeheartedly pro-Russian, may be a more acceptable alternative. Basing the radar on Azeri soil downplays Russia's military weakness and portrays it as an equal of the United States, voluntarily offering its services in the common struggle against rogue states. The proposal also assuages Russia's pride and takes pressure off the need to allocate a growing proportion of the budget on military spending.  Russia has recently gone a step further and offered the joint use of its new Voronezh-type radar that is being constructed in Krasnodar Krai, in the southern part of the country.

Unfortunately, Russia will only be fully satisfied if the United States renounces the idea of building missile sites in Eastern Europe altogether, which is unlikely. Early evidence suggests that Azerbaijan could at best become a complementary -- rather than an alternative -- part of the US anti-missile system. Thus the Americans may enter negotiations this week with Russia more intent on diplomatic politeness than genuine policy concessions.