Musharraf's final act?

Pakistan is a powder keg. The country is poised for the announcement of a presidential election date and the likelihood of unrest is very high. President Pervez Musharraf may take advantage of tensions to declare a state of emergency and cling on to power.

Musharraf has already indicated that he intends to ask the sitting national and provincial legislatures to vote on the presidency between September 15 and October 15.

The poll may ultimately be aborted. A legal ruling enabling Musharraf to serve simultaneously as president and army chief is due to expire. Under the terms of the constitution, it is not possible to wear both hats. In addition, an official -- including the army chief -- cannot stand for elected office for two years after leaving the post. As a result, Musharraf's plans to stand for re-election, either in his uniform or after retiring from the military, are subject to legal challenge.

The Supreme Court, which has clashed with the executive several times this year, is accordingly considering several petitions filed by politicians challenging aspects of Musharraf's rule and his plans for re-election.

The president also has uncertain support within the National Assembly, which would have to approve any constitutional changes, and vote for him. There has been some disquiet within the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) about Musharraf's intentions -- particularly over his attempt to cut a pre-election deal with exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto that would allow her to return to Pakistan if she supports his bid to stay on as president.

His party is also vulnerable to an upsurge of support for another exile, Nawaz Sharif, whose bid to return was thwarted last week, despite of a Supreme Court ruling sanctioning his right to return unhindered.

Meanwhile, the security situation has deteriorated. In response to US pressure, Musharraf has redoubled Pakistan's military presence near the Afghan border. This perceived kowtowing to US requests further reduces his domestic credibility. The deployment is also costly. Support from the military and the United States is key to maintaining his position, but their interests are difficult to reconcile.

An emergency declaration involving the postponement of elections would undoubtedly be risky, but for Musharraf, it is now a case of faute de mieux.