ANC leadership battle

The Congress of South African Trade Unions (COSATU) will meet this week and put forward a list of its preferred candidates to lead the ruling African National Congress (ANC). 

COSATU and the South African Communist Party are the ANC's traditional allies in the 'Tri-partite Alliance', which has governed the country since 1994.  However, the relations of organised labour and the Left with President Thabo Mbeki, who is also the ANC leader, have become strained.  COSATU feels that Mbeki's policies favour an emerging black elite, and that organised labour's position -- earned as the vanguard of the anti-apartheid movement -- is under threat from pro-market reforms. 

The leadership of the ANC will be decided at the party's congress later this year.  As the ANC leader is expected to stand as its presidential candidate, and considering the ANC's overwhelming support, this process in effect selects the country's next president.  However, a wrinkle has emerged in the hitherto smooth succession process: ANC deputy leader Jacob Zuma was sacked as Mbeki's deputy president in 2005 amid a corruption scandal.  Zuma's corruption case was dismissed, and he has styled himself as a champion of the Left in the interim, drawing support from COSATU, as well as ethnic Zulu, who fear marginalisation by Mbeki's Xhosa.  Mbeki is keen to avoid a Zuma presidency, and has thrown his hat into the ring for a third term as party leader, which is not prohibited by the ANC charter, although standing for a third presidential term is -- introducing the possibility of the party and the country having different leaders. 

Other high profile individuals understood to be in the running -- including businessmen Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa -- would be seen as ideologically, if not personally, more aligned with Mbeki's economic policies.  Thus, COSATU is unlikely to support them, or even include them in the list of 'approved' nominees it will generate this week.