Somalia: NRC setback

Somalia’s National Reconciliation Conference (NRC) will be dealt another setback on Saturday, when the consolidating political opposition to the Ethiopia-backed Transitional Federal Government (TFG) of Somalia launches a peace conference in Asmara, Eritrea. 

The 'Asmara Group' includes about 70 former members of the Transitional Federal Parliament who opposed Ethiopia's US-backed intervention in Somalia, as well as a group of 'moderate' members of the Islamic Courts movement that controlled Mogadishu and much of southern Somalia from June to December 2006.  The TFG had initially excluded Islamists from the NRC, which began in mid-July, although it later -- under significant international pressure -- invited moderate figures such as former Council of Somali Islamic Courts Chairman Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed to participate.  However, the Asmara Group has objected to the NRC -- which does not include political debate, but is focused rather on 'clan issues' and reconciliation -- and refuses to participate in talks at all before Ethiopian troops withdraw.  The Asmara Group's conference will involve dissident MPs, Islamists, civil society groups and representatives of the large Somali diaspora.  Although the Group includes some influential figures -- in particular within the Hawiye clans of Mogadishu, which supported the Courts -- its demand for Ethiopian withdrawal is unrealistic, as the TFG cannot survive without Addis Ababa's support. 

Nevertheless, without the participation of key figures within the Asmara Group -- such as Sheikh Ahmed and former Parliamentary Speaker Sharif Hassan Sheikh Aden -- and the inclusion of political issues on the agenda, most importantly the broadening of the TFG's base, the NRC will have limited impact, while the insurgency in Mogadishu will continue.  The talks also highlight Eritrea's role in fostering resistance to the TFG as part of its effort to destabilise Ethiopia, a dynamic that has potentially negative consequences for the entire Horn of Africa.