Calderon to shine

Mexico's centre-left opposition Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) will try to disrupt President Felipe Calderon's maiden state of the union address this Saturday. The mischief making will not overshadow what promises to be a productive week for the president.

Some PRD legislators remain aggrieved that their presidential candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, was defeated last year, and have threatened to obstruct proceedings:

• Last year, the party's legislators prevented former President Vicente Fox from delivering his speech, forcing him to hand in a written copy then beat a retreat to deliver a televised address from the presidential palace. 
• If they employ the same tactics this time round, Calderon will probably opt to hand in a written report on the state of the nation on Saturday, then make a major speech at the National Auditorium a day later. 
• By not risking a confrontation with misbehaving PRD lawmakers, Calderon will ensure that if there is a fracas, they -- rather than he -- appear foolish.

Reform success

After the weekend's monkey business, Congress will need to vote on Calderon's fiscal reform proposals. He aims to boost tax collection, while cutting evasion and making public spending more efficient.  Not wishing to take any chances, the government negotiated much of the proposed legislation with the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) before submitting it.  Calderon has subsequently expedited its passage with relatively minor changes by agreeing to allow deductions to a centrepiece tax on businesses, which has shored up PRI support. 

A growing number of PRD members of Congress have also agreed to support the bill, enticed by the promise of changes to electoral legislation.  Congress will begin voting on the fiscal package on Tuesday, and should finalise its approval two days later.

All of this will be good news for Calderon, who is developing into an effective and increasingly well-respected president, unexpected given that he took office after a highly contested election with no meaningful mandate. 

Calderon's approval ratings are extremely high, and will remain so as approval of the fiscal reform enhances his credibility.  At the same time, protests by sections of the PRD during Calderon's appearance before Congress, juxtaposed with others in the parliamentary party voting for the fiscal package, will expose the increasing chasms within the party.  These will only get worse over the rest of the year, particularly as a fierce battle is likely for the party leadership early next year.