Michigan moves the goalposts

Michigan is likely to add to the scheduling chaos engulfing the US presidential primary system this week, when Governor Jennifer Granholm ratifies the legislature's decision to fix a primary date on January 15, 2008. 

The move would alter the strategic dynamic of the contest and may produce countermoves by other states intent on maximising their influence on the outcome.  New Hampshire, which according to state law must conduct the first presidential primary, could move its vote to January 8.  Iowa, which has long opened the process for selecting delegates to the parties' national convention, may stage its caucuses even earlier -- perhaps as early as mid-December 2007.  Michigan's decision, coupled with similar moves by other large states, confirms that the major parties have lost control over the presidential nomination process.  Although the Democratic National Committee (DNC) says it will not count delegates from Florida, after the state moved its vote forward to January 29, this is an empty threat.

The earlier primary schedule would appear to benefit the candidates with the highest name recognition: Rudolph Giuliani on the Republican side, and Hillary Clinton for the Democrats.  However, if New Hampshire and Iowa react to Michigan’s move as expected, there would still be at least four weeks between the first caucuses and February 5 -- when voting in California, New York, and several other large states will decide the contest.  This gives candidates with lower profiles a chance to introduce themselves to the public.  In Clinton’s case, this is unlikely to divert her drive to the nomination.  However, an August 23 Gallup polling analysis suggests that Giuliani is vulnerable: the more Republican voters learn about his liberal positions on social issues, the less inclined they are to vote for him.  His principal opponents, Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson, are likely to overhaul him -- despite the early primary season.