Europe's last dictatorship

"Belarus is as close to a totalitarian state as you can get in Europe."

-- Playwright Tom Stoppard

The recent police raid on a private performance of a play by an underground theatre troupe in Minsk and the ensuing arrest of most of its 50-strong audience was a stark reminder of the growing intolerance of political opposition and countercultural activities in Belarus.

President Alyaksandr Lukashenko, uncertain of his ability to cope with economic difficulties, is becoming increasingly suspicious of his citizens. Repression is picking up again, with swift reprisals for those airing views that do not bear the imprimatur of Lukashenko's regime, regardless of the objective level of threat.

Big Brother behaviour

Stoppard, an expert on the anatomy of Orwellian totalitarianism, is fair in his assessment of Belarus. Minsk makes use of secret police, has been accused of disseminating propaganda through the mass media, regulates and restricts free discussion and criticism, and allegedly employs mass surveillance. It is instructive that the police raiding the underground play last month seem to have been expecting to interrupt a religious meeting.

There is also a personality cult surrounding Lukashenko. "Lukashism" refers to the political and economic system Lukashenko has implemented in Belarus, although the term is also used more broadly to refer to the president's authoritarian political ideology. Lukashenko himself declared during a recent election campaign that Belarusian laws have "elements of authoritarianism".

The authorities are keeping close tabs on opposition youth activists, aware of the role they have played in bringing down repressive regimes across Eastern Europe in recent years. In addition to the storming of the play performance, there have been a series of reported harassments by the police this year. For example:

• the authorities refused permission to assemble in the centre of Minsk to support 'Freeedom Day' in March, corralling demonstrators instead into a suburban square;
• youth opposition activists Alyaksey Shein and Pavel Sevyarynets were arrested while distributing leaflets for an opposition demonstration on July 27, the 17th anniversary of Belarus's declaration of sovereignty;
• another youth activist, Tatsyana Tsishkevich, is in hospital alleging assault by the police in Minsk on August 16; and
• 16 members of the Popular Front's youth wing were ordered to leave the camp they had set up near Brest on August 17.

Lukashenko also distrusts his state's security apparatchiks. Earlier this year he sacked KGB Chairman Sciapan Sukharenka and his deputy following a lengthy power struggle among the security agencies. The removal of one of Lukashenka's henchmen represented a further round of power consolidation. The purges are likely to continue as Belarus' government transforms itself into something resembling a family business.

In testimony to the US Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice labeled Belarus, among six nations, as part of the "outposts of tyranny". Washington is unlikely to change its assessment of Belarus' internal political system in the short-term. Belarus' opposition is maintaining pressure on the government, but is hampered by efficient government repression, lukewarm support from the West and internal divisions.