One week later...

One Week Later...

Key developments and outlook on the issues that dominated our last edition, covering August 18-24.

No let-up in Pakistan tensions

In Code Red in Pakistan?, we said that the Pakistani government might soon be forced to declare a state of emergency.

  • It has not, but the tension has not dissipated.
  • In the coming weeks, the country's Supreme Court will rule on several cases that could have a significant impact on the election schedule, and stability.
  • President General Musharraf, who plans to seek re-election, has few options available to him, and his opponents stand poised to challenge his every move.
Divisions remain in Darfur

In Darfur's hopes and fears, we saw new hope for Darfur thanks to a landmark UN resolution and signs of solidarity in the rebel ranks.

  • Last week, a leading rebel faction said it would re-assess its commitment to the peace initiative in the light of recent raids by Sudanese government forces.
  • The adoption of a common negotiating position is significant, but masks the divisions that remain. Khartoum's stubbornness could derail peace efforts. 
Abe gives Yasukuni a wide berth

In Emerging Trends, we wondered if Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe would pay his respects at the Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of Japan's surrender in the Second World War.

  • He gave the annual trip a miss.
  • By not going to the shrine, Abe may be signalling a policy of engagement with China and South Korea rather than confrontation.
Foot and mouth: a job well-done?

We discussed whether the return of foot and mouth disease (FMD) would inflict lasting damage to the UK economy.

  • It will not.
  • The EU export ban on British meat will be lifted this weekend.
  • The impact of the affair on the UK government will be limited, or even mildly positive.
Service as usual at Heathrow

We wondered if the 'Camp for Climate Action' -- a protest at noise and environmental damage at London's Heathrow airport -- would interfere with the hub's day-to-day operations.

  • The direct action did not affect flights or passengers.

News to us:

Bolivian brawl
Bolivian politicians have exchanged blows in Congress amid a dispute over control of the country's judiciary.
Hurricane Dean blows itself out
Dean was downgraded to a tropical storm after hitting Mexico for the second time last week. See this week's article on hurricanes.
Facebook for spooks
The CIA is to open A-Space, a communications tool for its staff, modelled on social networking sites such as Facebook and MySpace.

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A retrospective: were we correct in last week's predictions, and what happens next?
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