Polls for the Poles?

There is no declared date for legislative elections in Poland, but verbal scrimmaging is likely as campaigning begins in earnest this week.

Parliament is expected to vote on September 7 on a motion to truncate its term by two years, a move that would trigger the early elections sought by embattled Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

Kaczynski, whose Law and Justice party's rickety coalition with smaller populist parties collapsed earlier this year, should get his way. The liberal Civic Platform (PO) and the Social Democrats (SLD) also want an early election, meaning the motion to dissolve parliament should receive the necessary two-thirds of the vote.

The SLD, which has 55 seats, could kick up some fuss. It may insist that parliament's first job is to set up a commission to probe allegations of wrongdoing by the government. Opponents have claimed that Poland's Central Anti-Corruption Office is a political police unit that exists to protect only one party: the main party.

If the SLD backs down, the most likely date for the election would be October 21: according to the constitution, the president must call the election on any Sunday within 45 days after the parliament decides to dissolves itself.

Recent polls have given Civic Platform a razor-thin lead over Law and Justice. But Kaczynski's party has robust support among conservative rural voters and will launch an aggressive campaign. In the 2005 election, Law and Justice overturned a deficit in pre-election polls to finish ahead of Civic Platform.

Policy miscalculations

However, Kaczynski may find his foreign policies are out of touch with popular sentiment: 

• He has already accused Civic Platform of being "over-dependent" on Germany.
• Playing the anti-German card is not a good idea: a recent survey in a Polish newspaper showed that two-thirds of respondents thought his remarks were unacceptable.
• Only 18% thought they reflected real foreign policy concerns.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski and his identical twin brother, Lech, the president of Poland, preside over a conservative administration that focuses on corruption and security issues and adheres to a policy of defending national interests. This has hamstrung their ability to make an input into debates about the future of European integration and forge stable alliances, particularly with Germany, of which the Kaczynski brothers are extremely suspicious, despite the fact that it is one of Poland's most important strategic partners in the EU. The Kaczynskis are also strongly opposed to the EU constitutional treaty and are unlikely to support reviving its ratification in its present form.

All this will play into the hands of the economically liberal Civic Platform, which seems to have a better understanding of the zeitgeist. It has promised warmer relations with all of Poland's neighbours if it wins the election. Poles tiring of Kaczynski's quarrelsome rhetoric will welcome the prospect -- as will the financial markets.