Peru: Surviving the aftershock

The recent earthquake in Peru is proving particularly untimely for Alan Garcia, the country's embattled president.

Garcia may have made a grand show of directing relief operations by spending time in the affected areas, but aid has been slow to reach those in most need. He will continue to face widespread criticism for failing to act more effectively. For a man whose popularity has been ebbing in opinion polls, it may be the final nail in the coffin.

Rich-poor rift

Excluding the earthquake, things should be rosy for Garcia. An export boom driven by strong commodity prices has allowed his country's economy to grow at an annual average of over 5% in recent years. The construction industry is flourishing in Lima and other coastal cities. Inflation is low, the currency stable, and several rating agencies have recently upgraded Peru's sovereign rating.

But not all Peruvians are benefiting from the economic boom and Garcia will continue to haemorrhage popular support:  

• Having taken office with an approval rating of 63%, the most recent opinion poll put his public backing at 32%.
• Half of Peru did not vote for him, and his support in the Andean highlands is close to nil.
• The earthquake will further undermine faith in the administration and president, as the government does not look able to distribute relief quickly and fairly.

Disasters such as this do more than open up cracks in the earth: they also expose public sector inefficiency and corruption. Inhabitants of the highland regions will increasingly take to the streets to express their discontent, with the government facing waves of protest from teachers and other public sector workers, which will turn increasingly violent.

Garcia has already expressed regret that economic growth is not having a greater effect on the poorest members of society and restated a commitment to cutting poverty levels by the end of his term. But he is prone to the occasional impolitic outburst: he has already apologised for describing participants in recent demonstrations as 'communists' and 'parasites'. 

Peru's economy will continue to grow strongly in the short-to-medium term, with domestic demand increasingly driving the expansion.  Urban employment levels are likely to rise, leading to some poverty reduction in Lima other large coastal cities. However, this will exacerbate a development gap between these urban areas and the Andean highlands, which will lead to further protests. 

As more citizens feel disenfranchised and unrepresented, Garcia's approval ratings will not improve -- if anything his popular mandate will be even more reduced.  At the same time, pressure will grow within his ruling Alianza Popular Revolucionaria Americana (APRA) party for a greater slice of the economic and political pies. 

This does not mean that Garcia is in immediate danger of being unable to serve out his term.  But he is at risk of becoming a polarising figure, lacking the authority of a public and political mandate.