The Week That Was

Last week, in our issue covering August 4-10, 2007, we made a few predictions. How did we do?

Fidel still in charge

A year without Fidel, we wrote about Castro's continuing influence. At the weekend, Castro wrote that two defecting Cuban boxers who have returned will be treated fairly. Castro blamed US money for the boxers' defections. As long as he breathes, Castro cannot resist running his country.

Not so special any more

In The 'Special Relationship', we predicted that UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown would aim to be seen as his 'own man.' The world press were split on the status of the 'special relationship'. The Independent on Sunday thought it was "possible to love America without loving George Bush."  The Japan Times thought it was a case of plus ca change. "Britain and the U.S. are natural allies," it wrote, "with common concerns, interests and values, and their collaboration and cooperation allows them to maximize their assets and accomplish far more than they could alone." The Guardian was antithetical: "Britain's supposedly privileged connection with the US is a fallacy: it is neither special nor based on shared values." For Brown, it was mission accomplished: the alliance is intact, but the bonhomie is on the back-burner.

Nuclear deal creates political instability

In Emerging Trends, we identified the US-India nuclear deal as a key strategic challenge, correctly predicting serious opposition from the communists and others. On Tuesday, a four-party communist alliance, known as The Left, said that after studying the details of the nuclear deal, it was unable to accept the agreement. This points to a headache for Manmohan Singh, but the deal will progress.

Holiday tears in Baghdad

In Holiday in Baghdad, we thought the leaders of Iraq's main sectarian factions would have a tough task resolving the political impasse that has stalled key legislation. Now five ministers have withdrawn from the cabinet, leaving the Iraqi government with no Sunni participants. Prime Minister Maliki now leads a government of national disunity, and Washington will want changes.

Bolivian distractions

With regional anti-government sentiment high in Bolivia, one may have thought it was the wrong time for President Evo Morales to hold a military and Indian parade. Although the jamboree went ahead on Tuesday without the feared violence between marchers and counter-demonstrators from Santa Cruz groups, there were signs of disunity. The debate about moving the location of Bolivia's capital distracts from the more pressing issue of constutitional reform.

News to us:

South Ossetia stand-off

On Tuesday, Georgia accused Russia of committing an "act of aggression" against it by dropping a bomb or a missile close to the breakaway republic of South Ossetia. The Georgian government is likely to interpret the incident as another provocation from Russia, aimed at destabilising the situation and jeopardising Tbilisi's attempts to bring South Ossetia under its control. Russia will claim it is Tbilisi doing the provocation.

New speaker in Ankara

A moderate conservative from Turkey's ruling Islamist AKP Party, Koksal Toptan, has been elected parliament speaker. Toptan's nomination threw a bone to the country's powerful secular elite, including the military. The thornier issue of who will be president now needs to be tackled.  Back in May, an attempt by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to impose Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul as president forced early general elections, from which Erdogan emerged as the clear victor. If Erdogan nominates Gul again, he risks more confrontation with secularists who are suspicious of the AKP's agenda. Erdogan realistically has no choice but to seek consensus on the choice of the new president.