Temple of doom?

A wise leader only wants to handle one crisis at a time, and how Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe behaves this Wednesday will tell us a lot about the man, and his prospects.

Right-wingers will want the conservative Abe to pay his respects at the Yasukuni Shrine on the anniversary of Japan's surrender in the Second World War. His predecessor, Junichiro Koizumi, made pilgrimages there, and was shunned by China and South Korea for his pains. In a rare popular achievement of his ten-month tenure, Abe has made remedying relations with his two close neighbours a cornerstone of foreign policy.

Abe has refused to say whether or not he will go to Yasukuni, but the longer he has stayed away, the better relations have become with China.  If he goes next week, relations with Beijing and Seoul will go into freefall, as for them the shrine represents Japanese glorification of its past militarism. That would be one crisis too many for Abe, following so close on his Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) drubbing at the upper house elections of July 29. A victorious opposition is gunning for Abe, and support within his own party is ebbing.  Wisdom dictates that Abe should stay away from Yasukuni on Wednesday. If he makes the trip, it is because he feels he has nothing to lose and some plaudits to gain. Some other prime minister could then deal with China and South Korea.