Code Red in Pakistan?

Pakistan narrowly avoided declaring a state of emergency last week. But with rising tensions on all fronts, the government may be forced to change its mind this week. 

There are two conditions under which President Pervez Musharraf is constitutionally entitled to make such a proclamation:  war or internal disturbance. The second of these conditions has arguably been met.

Tensions remain high in the country after last month's attack by government troops on Islamabad's radical Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in which more than 100 people died. Since then, more than 360 people have since died in a wave of suicide attacks and clashes between militants and security forces in the troubled North West Frontier Provinces and elsewhere.

Political gain

Musharraf could gain politically from a state of emergency. It would allow the National Assembly to remain in office for a further year and enable the postponement of national elections due later this year. Musharraf could therefore hang on to his powerful role of military chief and state president for the duration.

Clamping down

In a state of emergency, provisions in the constitution that deal with fundamental rights can be suspended. There would be curbs on:

• freedom of movement;
• the right to rally and hold protests;.
• the right to engage in political activities;.
• freedom to trade and do business; and
• freedom of speech. 

The powers of the judiciary may also be curtailed, though not completely. The Supreme Court, which is shaping up to be the president's most formidable opponent, could still challenge the legality of a state of emergency.

A softer option?

Perhaps with this in mind, Musharraf is more likely to opt for a form of authoritarian rule in which certain liberties are restricted rather than an official state of emergency. This would be Washington’s preferred option. The United States is already unhappy over what it regards as the Pakistan leader’s ineffectual campaign against terrorists operating in his territory. It does not want to be seen to be backing a ‘dictator’, especially a weak one.   

Declaring a state of emergency would alienate an even more important constituency: the Pakistan military. The army could quickly turn against its chief in the ensuing chaos. Musharraf owes his power to the men in the uniform. They could easily decide to take it away from him.