A year without Fidel

This week, Fidel Castro celebrates his 81st birthday.  The anniversary will slip by largely unnoticed. It is a case of out of sight, out of mind. Since handing over power a year ago to his brother Raul to undergo gastric surgery, Fidel has not been seen in public. While there is every indication that his health continues to improve -- he continues to pen articles in the Cuban state press -- a birthday appearance is unlikely.

The comandante's continued absence -- and existence -- is convenient for a number of key actors. The United States is able to justify the continuing economic embargo and hostile policy towards Cuba, arguing that while the leader may be absent, his system remains in place. For its part, the Cuban government can claim that the system can function perfectly well without the comandante at the helm.

Many believe that there can be no major changes in Cuba without Fidel's approval, much less against his wishes. While Fidel is unlikely to return to public life, he remains a formidable eminence grise.  Recent foreign policy clearly bears his imprint, most notably brinkmanship over whether to accept a EU offer of dialogue.

Even if the elder statesman continues to operate in the background, the transition to a post-Fidel Communist government has already begun: 

• There has been a move towards more collective leadership, with a number of senior Communist Party figures adopting key positions, and Raul presiding as a chief executive figure rather than supreme leader. 

• Government officials are now held more accountable. 

• Havana's human rights record is far from clean, but levels of arbitrary arrest and detention are down.

• The economy remains highly centralised, but small openings have taken place – most notably, unofficial taxis once again are relatively tolerated.

Growing US rapprochement?

As the transition is underway, the risk of serious instability once Fidel eventually passes away is much reduced.  While rhetoric will remain hostile over the coming year, there is prospect for some thawing in relations between Havana and Washington. Raul has suggested that the Cuban government might become more open to foreign investment, provided this followed "socialist principles". He repeated an offer to talk to the US government, provided dialogue occurred in a climate of "mutual respect".

Whoever is elected US president next year, the administration that takes office in 2009 will be more open to improved relations. Firstly, President George Bush is extremely close to the Florida exile community, which is virulently anti-Castro. Secondly, Chinese and Brazilian energy companies are drilling for oil off the Cuban coast and US oil majors are keen for a slice of any potential find.