Will Fortis favour the brave?

Monday should see the final submission of bids for Dutch Bank ABN-Amro, after a bitter and complex battle between Barclays and a consortium led by Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).

Initially, RBS et al outbid Barclays for the bank, but made their bid conditional on getting their hands on US subsidiary LaSalle, which ABN Amro was trying to sell. Barclays hoped that after the RBS-led consortium lost its chance to get hold of LaSalle, it would drop its bid. Instead, the rival consortium pressed on. Barclays then turned to Chinese and Singaporean state investors for extra funds, triggering a row over the potential political interference from such organisations. As Barclays' shares -- in tandem with its bid -- fell in value, ABN's board was forced to withdraw its original recommendation in Barclays' favour. Game, set and match RBS?

Not quite. The weak link in the RBS consortium is Belgian-Dutch bank Fortis. As the smallest of the three members, it faces the greatest challenge raising money for the bid. Investors unhappy at the measures it must go through to raise the cash may prevent it raising the capital at an extraordinary eleventh-hour meeting, also taking place on Monday. Even then, with regulators eyeing the consortium's break-up plans for its new acquisition, this could be just the beginning of the saga.