The US-India nuclear deal

There is trouble in store for Washington and Delhi over their civilian nuclear deal.

It is likely that the terms of the '123 agreement' -- named after a clause in the US Atomic Energy Act of 1954 -- violate US legislation passed last year on the nuclear pact between Washington and Delhi. The deal also further undermines the international nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

The accord had been held up amid disagreement on issues such as India's right to conduct nuclear tests and to reprocess fuel. Recently, there have been noises from Delhi indicating that its wishes have now been accommodated -- probably via some careful diplomacy and skilful use of language, which has not been made public. Yet it still faces considerable opposition in Delhi and Washington, where it must be ratified. 

India must also seek the unanimous approval of the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group, including China and Japan, which have thus far been lukewarm towards the US deal. It will also have to agree to inspections from the International Atomic Energy Agency.

While the Indian parliament does not have to ratify the deal, legislators will subject it to a high degree of scrutiny. Communists, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party and members of the scientific community will be looking for signs that the government has 'sold out' to the US. The Indian government is highly sensitive to such accusations, reflected in recent moves to demonstrate independence in foreign policy, for example, in its pursuit of a gas pipeline agreement with Iran and Pakistan.

Both Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President George Bush are nearing the ends of their terms. With elections looming in 2008-2009, their room for manoeuvre is limited and progress is likely to continue at snail's pace.

However, the deal will be finalised. It has enormous strategic significance, and even in its unfinished form, has cemented India’s status as a nuclear power. Its commercial significance is immense -- the US nuclear industry will be watching jealously as Russia and France line up to scoop a piece of the action.