Romney's rise

This week will throw up a surprise: former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney could soon have a clear advantage in the race for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination. 

Romney began the campaign as a heavy underdog, well behind former New York Mayor Rudolf Giuliani and Senator John McCain in the national polls.  Recently, he has been overshadowed by speculation concerning the possible candidacy of former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson, who became the darling of the Right.  Moreover, during his tenure in Boston, Romney cultivated a reputation as a politically moderate technocrat.  To have a chance with the more conservative Republican electorate nationally, he was forced to execute a half-pirouette and embrace policies that he previously opposed, such as opposition to abortion.  Accusations of political 'flip-flopping', widespread prejudice against his religious beliefs (Mormonism), and lack of name national recognition were serious early handicaps. 

But Romney is an exceptional politician and campaigner.  He realised that historically, the key to securing a major party nomination was scoring victories in several early primaries, rather than launching a broad national campaign.  Despite moves by several large states, such as California and Florida, to adopt earlier primaries, Romney has continued to focus his efforts on the earliest contests in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire -- a commitment that has paid off.  According to data compiled by University of Wisconsin political scientist Charles Franklin, he has comfortable leads in all of these contests.  He also appears poised to win the August 11 Iowa 'straw poll' this week -- the only question concerns his margin of victory.  Defying the pundits, Romney could shortly be the new Republican front-runner.