Sayonara, Shinzo?

With his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) about to lose an election, Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe could be headed for the exit this week.

Voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect half the 242 members of Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors. The LDP and its New Komeito Party allies currently have a majority in the house, and they will hold on to government whatever happens at the weekend, as this is decided in the lower house, which is not up for election. But a drubbing on Sunday would damage the government badly, and could be fatal for the prime minister.

Litany of failure

What has Abe done to deserve such a gloomy prognosis? He came to power in September riding the wave of his predecessor's popularity, but his ratings have slipped after a litany of ministerial scandals -- injudicious comments, dubious conduct, resignations, a suicide. An air of incompetence also surrounds his campaign agenda.

Accordingly, the LDP will lose votes. The LDP-New Komeito coalition needs 64 seats to retain its upper house majority, but Abe's party could struggle to take 45 and New Komeito fall short of its current 13. Pressure on Abe to go might prove irresistible if the LDP scores closer to 40. The opposition Democratic Party of Japan needs 59 seats to take control.

Policy change?

A no-confidence vote in Abe and his administration will not tell us much about public sentiment towards government policy. He has trumpeted a nationalist agenda by upgrading the status of the military, moving towards revision of the 'pacifist' constitution and mandating patriotism in schools. Yet negative views of government and perceived personal leadership inadequacies make it difficult to determine the nature of public attitudes towards this policy direction. So even if Abe departs, his policies may endure. Where change will come is in areas in which Abe has been noticeably weak, most obviously on economic matters.

In the event of an LDP meltdown on Sunday, Abe might be given a brief grace period - – if only for want of a helmsman to command a party in disarray. Abe will want to cling on to power, and will seek to exploit any breathing space he is given. But he is unlikely to turn public opinion back in his favour, and may have to go.