Next stop: Pakistan?

What is the greatest threat facing United States from overseas?

According to the latest National Intelligence Estimate, which aggregates the views of the 16 US intelligence agencies, it is not extremists plotting attacks on the United States in Iraq or Afghanistan.  Nearly six years after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, US intelligence thinks that the key threat to US interests lurks in the tribal areas of northwest Pakistan. Supporting Pakistan's unpopular president, General Pervez Musharraf, has failed to eradicate the danger emanating from this region, its report concludes, and the tribal areas remain a "safe haven and operational base" for Al Qaida. 

For US officials mulling a new initiative to de-fang the tribal areas, Musharraf's unpopularity is worrying. Facing challenges from both democrats and Islamists, and with any indication of subservience to Washington greeted with popular scorn, he cannot be easily pressed into implementing tougher measures. US air power could be used to take out 'high value' targets in Pakistan, but there would be a strong backlash against Musharraf in the event of mass 'collateral damage'. In the absence of a deal with exiled opposition leader Benazir Bhutto to give him greater legitimacy, Washington's alliance with Musharraf is a bootless business. A big adjustment in US policy could be in the works.