Lebanon: Last chance saloon

A last-ditch diplomatic effort to resolve Lebanon's longstanding political crisis will be launched this weekend.

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is to travel to Beirut for the second time since his appointment in May, and will remain in the country for at least two days in an attempt to build upon a dialogue begun in Paris a fortnight ago.

Paris pledge

The French effort to restart peace talks between the Lebanese government and opposition groups -- which have been at a political impasse since November last year -- has so far been fruitless. Yet an uneasy truce continues to hold. After the Paris meeting, Kouchner stressed that all sides had pledged to re-launch dialogue and not to resort to violence.

The two sides still disagree over the nature of a possible unity government that would include the Shia parties Amal and Hizbollah -- which pulled out of the administration in November in protest of Prime Minister Siniora's ties with the United States. Until now, Siniora has blankly refused such a unity government because it would allow the Hizbollah-led opposition to block the ratification of a UN tribunal into the death of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, for which Syria stands accused.

Lebanon's feuding sides also need to agree on a presidential candidate. Parliament will convene on September 25, and if no candidate is agreed on by then, there is significant risk that rival governments will be established.

Iran and Syria

The resolution of Beirut's political crisis is more than just a regional concern.

This week will see increased Saudi efforts to persuade Iran to exercise its influence over Hizbollah. If Tehran is to force its strategic and religious partner in Lebanon to compromise, such a move will have to be linked to European and US concessions over issues involving Iraq, Palestine, and Iran's nuclear programme.       

A breakthrough will also depend on Syria, which still commands strong influence over Hizbollah.

As a clear sign of its intention to involve Syria in a solution in Lebanon, France recently sent an envoy to Damascus for the first time since the death of Hariri.

Syria presents itself as the solution to the crisis in Lebanon but commands less influence over Hizbollah than Iran, and gains much from keeping Beirut weak. Like Iran, Syria may only offer its help in exchange for substantial concessions: perhaps a return of the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights or a guarantee that the Hariri tribunal will not target its regime.  

Trouble ahead

French efforts may not succeed unless they can involve the United States in cutting deals with Syria and Iran. But even if Washington gives ground, the noises from Damascus are not promising. According to some Arab, Israeli and Iranian media outlets, Damascus has ordered Syrian workers and students in Lebanon to return to Syria in anticipation of a deteriorating security situation and increased risk of violence.